Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 236.873217 287.889328 350.943890 435.943728 549.641379 6.996397e+02 9.180533e+02
2025-08-03 178.530201 237.238544 319.218398 446.533768 648.179215 9.726870e+02 1.576720e+03
2025-08-10 144.858214 204.246652 294.372819 449.347612 728.724558 1.258646e+03 2.493800e+03
2025-08-17 120.813192 177.716848 269.473097 439.915898 780.512868 1.523128e+03 3.656651e+03
2025-08-24 103.367177 157.152048 248.137395 428.117508 820.565953 1.789814e+03 5.205336e+03
2025-08-31 90.100971 140.701065 229.738746 415.452651 852.408416 2.062042e+03 7.287970e+03
2025-09-07 85.868157 138.697655 236.457069 455.040376 1025.423254 2.886641e+03 1.404833e+04
2025-09-14 78.558441 129.904928 228.345955 459.781488 1112.416253 3.539942e+03 2.313901e+04
2025-09-21 73.486820 124.403373 225.575323 476.076323 1243.412679 4.552375e+03 4.386080e+04
2025-09-28 67.537232 116.347520 215.978413 472.657698 1312.060656 5.407751e+03 7.630428e+04
2025-10-05 65.963720 116.608908 224.218043 518.749448 1586.621290 8.005048e+03 2.548133e+05
2025-10-12 63.823414 115.384812 228.873227 556.895980 1867.067851 1.161249e+04 1.229229e+06
2025-10-19 61.035951 112.649793 230.045507 587.436260 2158.542879 1.688128e+04 1.840910e+07
2025-10-26 57.824356 108.596558 227.347089 605.516150 2417.921901 2.375555e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 54.350097 103.519626 221.169642 610.100417 2617.352816 3.188014e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 50.509249 97.173518 210.664501 596.165237 2698.633452 3.910176e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 46.958945 91.117145 200.020460 578.711843 2747.148134 4.689828e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 43.745855 85.517312 189.801172 560.031592 2775.249683 5.546772e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 43.441605 86.680706 198.346665 618.648439 3477.424784 1.173145e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 41.485725 83.679518 194.630350 625.711502 3778.389173 1.806841e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 40.165767 82.085038 194.761510 650.054909 4303.010337 3.463693e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 38.173021 78.629404 188.827758 644.938995 4525.100688 5.358899e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 38.083992 79.935129 197.633140 714.295416 5817.765547 2.531502e+06 NaN